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FCF

First Commonwealth FinancialC
NYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 results support a constructive operating trend: stronger EPS, NIM expansion, improved efficiency, lower nonperforming loans, and incremental capital return. The initial post-print market reaction was positive but partly reversed the following session, so confirmation requires sustained earnings and margin performance.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
End-of-period deposit contraction and a higher 92.7% loan-to-deposit ratio could constrain funding flexibility.
Momentum
53
Value
52
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $21.75 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $18.50Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-27 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $24.07
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d +1.7
Value52 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -4.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • End-of-period deposit contraction and a higher 92.7% loan-to-deposit ratio could constrain funding flexibility.
  • • Higher net charge-offs could require renewed reserve building and pressure earnings.
  • • Funding and credit signals are mixed.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27 · AMC

Q2 earnings and margin expansion

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
53
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.7
Δ21d
-8.6
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.1
Δ21d
-10.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 53.0 / Value 52.5 / Sentiment 56.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$21.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.13B
Beta
0.80
Shares Out
101.06M
P/E (TTM)
12.3
P/S (TTM)
3.51
P/FCF (TTM)
23.05
Rev YoY
+0.6%
EPS YoY
+36.6%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+29.0%
Net Debt
$349.06M
Current Ratio
0.04
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data