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FCF

First Commonwealth FinancialC
NYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 results support a constructive operating trend: stronger EPS, NIM expansion, improved efficiency, lower nonperforming loans, and incremental capital return. The initial post-print market reaction was positive but partly reversed the following session, so confirmation requires sustained earnings and margin performance.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.8.
What can break
End-of-period deposit contraction and a higher 92.7% loan-to-deposit ratio could constrain funding flexibility.
Momentum
53
Value
54
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $21.75 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $18.50Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $24.08
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d -4.4
Value54 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +2.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • End-of-period deposit contraction and a higher 92.7% loan-to-deposit ratio could constrain funding flexibility.
  • • Higher net charge-offs could require renewed reserve building and pressure earnings.
  • • Funding and credit signals are mixed.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-28

Q2 earnings and margin expansion

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
53
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-4.4
Δ21d
-8.8
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
64
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.8
Δ21d
+3.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 53.5 / Value 53.6 / Sentiment 64.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$21.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.17B
Beta
0.80
Shares Out
101.06M
P/E (TTM)
12.3
P/S (TTM)
3.51
P/FCF (TTM)
23.05
Rev YoY
+0.6%
EPS YoY
+36.6%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+29.0%
Net Debt
$349.06M
Current Ratio
0.04
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data