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FCEL

FuelCell EnergyF
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The best support for a constructive view is not near-term earnings quality but survival plus scheduled execution: FCEL entered Q1 with $311.8 million of unrestricted cash, reduced its EXIM minimum cash requirement to $55 million, and laid out a dated FY26 commissioning schedule for GGE and CGN modules that could convert backlog into revenue if execution holds. [#10-Q-2026-03-09]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
Backlog quality is mixed: generation backlog is long dated, product backlog has been declining as modules are commissioned, and advanced technologies backlog remains relatively small. [#10-Q-2026-03-09]
Momentum
14
Value
34
Sentiment
9
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.50 · Bull $13.50 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-04-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $20.50
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d -26.2
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment9 · Δ7d -0.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Backlog quality is mixed: generation backlog is long dated, product backlog has been declining as modules are commissioned, and advanced technologies backlog remains relatively small. [#10-Q-2026-03-09]
  • • Continued operating losses and negative operating cash flow keep FCEL dependent on successful backlog conversion and disciplined spending. [#10-Q-2026-03-09]
  • • The bear case remains straightforward: FCEL is still loss-making, posted a Q1 gross loss of $5.9 million and loss from operations of $26.3 million, continues to consume operating cash, and still depends on project timing, customer milestones, and future backlog additions to justify the manufacturing footprint.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-31

FY26 module commissioning schedule can convert backlog into revenue

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
14
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-26.2
Δ21d
-83.0
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
9
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+4.5
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 13.9 / Value 34.2 / Sentiment 9.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.79B
Beta
1.31
Shares Out
79.95M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.6
P/S (TTM)
2.49
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-6.75
Rev YoY
-4.9%
EPS YoY
-18.8%
Gross Margin
-18.2%
Op Margin
-68.9%
Net Debt
-$162.17M
Current Ratio
8.59
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data