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FBRT

Franklin BSP Realty TrustB
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q3 repurchases lifted fully converted book value to $14.26 per share, and the Agency servicing portfolio grew to $61.3 billion. Credit stabilization could make the large share-price discount to reported book value more credible.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.4.
What can break
Further loan impairments or realized losses could erode book value and distributable earnings; Q3 net credit-loss provision was $43.1 million. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-28]
Momentum
16
Value
60
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $6.70 · Bull $9.00 · Bear $4.70Analysis 2026-10-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.33
Why
Momentum16 · Δ7d +4.5
Value60 · Δ7d +0.7
Sentiment64 · Δ7d -3.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Further loan impairments or realized losses could erode book value and distributable earnings; Q3 net credit-loss provision was $43.1 million. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-28]
  • • Q3 distributable earnings did not cover the declared $0.20 dividend, although earnings before realized losses did. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-28]
  • • The $0.02 distributable loss did not cover the $0.20 quarterly dividend, despite $0.24 per share before realized losses.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-12

Q3 earnings miss and credit-loss digestion

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
16
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.5
Δ21d
+2.2
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
64
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.4
Δ21d
-5.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 15.6 / Value 60.2 / Sentiment 63.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$6.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$466.15M
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
83.05M
P/E (TTM)
12.5
P/S (TTM)
1.48
P/FCF (TTM)
32.59
Rev YoY
+15.5%
EPS YoY
-37.8%
Gross Margin
+93.7%
Op Margin
+57.7%
Net Debt
$4.06B
Current Ratio
0.88
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data