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FBIZ

First Business Financial ServicesB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The earnings release showed strong core execution, positive operating leverage, balance-sheet growth, NIM expansion, and maintained 2026 growth objectives. The SBA exit could improve returns if freed capacity converts into higher-return lending and fee businesses.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
Banking credit, commercial real-estate, deposit-cost, and funding risks remain material.
Momentum
75
Value
58
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $76.00 · Bull $84.00 · Bear $63.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $78.80
Why
Momentum75 · Δ7d +2.5
Value58 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -1.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Banking credit, commercial real-estate, deposit-cost, and funding risks remain material.
  • • Low coverage limits visibility into estimate revisions, price-target changes, and consensus durability.
  • • Headline EPS benefited from a one-time tax item, while the SBA exit removes gain-on-sale revenue and its replacement economics are uncertain.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-15

Q2 earnings beat with maintained growth targets

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
75
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
-0.9
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.7
Δ21d
-9.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 74.7 / Value 58.5 / Sentiment 59.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$76.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$63.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$617.25M
Beta
0.75
Shares Out
8.37M
P/E (TTM)
9.0
P/S (TTM)
2.72
P/FCF (TTM)
8.03
Rev YoY
+7.4%
EPS YoY
+36.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+22.5%
Net Debt
$220.94M
Current Ratio
0.06
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data