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National VisionB
Nasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The best post-earnings read is that National Vision is converting its transformation plan into better profitability: higher ticket, managed-care strength, lower payroll and advertising as a percent of sales, and reiterated FY2026 guidance all support a still-positive multi-quarter setup.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.8.
What can break
FY2026 guidance was reiterated rather than raised, limiting evidence of a stronger forward demand inflection.
Momentum
7
Value
54
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $22.00 · Bull $28.00 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $28.18
Why
Momentum7 · Δ7d -0.7
Value54 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment73 · Δ7d -4.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • FY2026 guidance was reiterated rather than raised, limiting evidence of a stronger forward demand inflection.
  • • Lower self-pay customer traffic remains a real offset to higher ticket and managed-care gains.
  • • The weaker read is that revenue still slightly lagged consensus, self-pay traffic remained soft, and some of the quarter's earnings lift was helped by unearned-revenue timing.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-31

Post-earnings estimate and target reset risk after slight revenue miss

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
7
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-27.6
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-3.4
Sentiment
73
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.8
Δ21d
+9.6
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 7.5 / Value 54.3 / Sentiment 73.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.46B
Beta
1.39
Shares Out
79.07M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
49.4
P/S (TTM)
1.08
P/FCF (TTM)
24.97
Rev YoY
+2.5%
EPS YoY
+41.3%
Gross Margin
+54.1%
Op Margin
+4.2%
Net Debt
$655.89M
Current Ratio
0.59
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data