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EXTR

Extreme NetworksC
Nasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The earnings release materially improved near-term optics: revenue grew 11% YoY, non-GAAP EPS was $0.26, gross margin held, SaaS ARR accelerated, and management guided to another step up in Q4 and reaffirmed confidence with a $50M accelerated share repurchase [#8-K-2026-04-29]. Trusted same-day coverage also indicated the quarter beat consensus on both EPS and revenue.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
What can break
Free cash flow fell to $7.8M from $24.2M a year earlier, limiting how aggressively the market should extrapolate the earnings beat [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Momentum
47
Value
52
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $20.50 · Bull $24.50 · Bear $16.50Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.50
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d -9.2
Value52 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment50 · Δ7d -0.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Free cash flow fell to $7.8M from $24.2M a year earlier, limiting how aggressively the market should extrapolate the earnings beat [#8-K-2026-04-29].
  • • Management said targeted pricing is offsetting incremental supply-chain costs, which implies margin durability still depends on execution rather than a fully normalized cost base [#8-K-2026-04-29].
  • • This is still best treated as a monitoring-style post-earnings upgrade rather than a full thesis reset: same-day checked sources did not yet show a broad analyst target-revision cycle, free cash flow was weaker YoY, net cash compressed sequentially, and management is still relying on pricing and supply actions to offset incremental costs [#8-K-2026-04-29].

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · BMO

Q3 earnings beat, guide reiterated higher, and supply-chain actions supported the print

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
47
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-9.2
Δ21d
+27.5
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
50
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-0.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 47.0 / Value 51.9 / Sentiment 49.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$24.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$20.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.9B
Beta
1.68
Shares Out
132.17M
P/E (TTM)
262.1
P/S (TTM)
1.89
P/FCF (TTM)
23.49
Rev YoY
+10.3%
EPS YoY
-329.6%
Gross Margin
+60.2%
Op Margin
+5.0%
Net Debt
-$17.19M
Current Ratio
0.93
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data