B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
EPM
Evolution PetroleumDNYSE American / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Revenue, production and adjusted EBITDA improved sequentially, fiscal-2026 production was broadly stable, proved reserves exceeded 100% production replacement, and the Midland royalty acquisition adds operator-funded upside. The maintained $0.12 dividend provides tangible shareholder return.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.7.
What can break
Adjusted profitability remains weak despite the sequential rebound; adjusted net income was negative and adjusted EBITDA declined year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-09-15]
Momentum
61
Value
44
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.55 · Bull $4.50 · Bear $2.85Analysis 2026-09-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.00
Why
Momentum61 · Δ7d -2.2
Value44 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -4.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted profitability remains weak despite the sequential rebound; adjusted net income was negative and adjusted EBITDA declined year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-09-15]
- • Oil, natural-gas and NGL price weakness could reverse the quarter's realized-price benefit.
- • Fiscal-Q4 production and adjusted EBITDA remained below the prior year, adjusted earnings were still negative, and external consensus coverage characterized adjusted EPS as a miss.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-30
Quarterly dividend record and payment dates
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
61
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
+5.3
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.7
Δ21d
-18.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 60.9 / Value 44.0 / Sentiment 52.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$3.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$2.85
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$157.88M
Beta
0.34
Shares Out
40.17M
P/E (TTM)
126.4
P/S (TTM)
1.40
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.41
Rev YoY
-10.6%
EPS YoY
+287.2%
Gross Margin
+13.6%
Op Margin
+1.6%
Net Debt
$35.06M
Current Ratio
0.61
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data