B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.94
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ELME
Elme CommunitiesDNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
At the $1.64 anchor price, the residual estimated distribution range of $1.74-$1.94 per share implies a gross spread if Bethesda, Riverside and the remaining property sales close near management's assumptions. The July update also reduced the outstanding term loan to $251 million and placed all four remaining properties under contract [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Management's distribution estimates are unaudited, assumption-driven and not assured; actual amounts and payment timing remain subject to the Board's discretion [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24].
Momentum
79
Value
38
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.78 · Bull $1.94 · Bear $1.30Analysis 2026-08-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $0.00
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d -
Value38 · Δ7d -
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Management's distribution estimates are unaudited, assumption-driven and not assured; actual amounts and payment timing remain subject to the Board's discretion [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24].
- • Riverside remains subject to an inspection period through August 20, 2026 and customary closing conditions; failure or delay could reduce expected proceeds [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24].
- • The July update cut the total estimated distribution range from $16.74-$17.02 to $16.41-$16.61 per share after Riverside's prior buyer terminated and a replacement buyer agreed to a lower $250 million price.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-11
Elme Bethesda closing deadline
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
79
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
38
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
53
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 78.8 / Value 38.0 / Sentiment 53.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$1.78
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$143.06M
Beta
0.80
Shares Out
88.86M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-10.7
P/S (TTM)
6.24
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-9.80
Rev YoY
+1.7%
EPS YoY
+3942.7%
Gross Margin
+21.1%
Op Margin
+6.1%
Net Debt
$690.34M
Current Ratio
1.03
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data