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ELE

Elemental RoyaltyC
Nasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record 2025 results, sharply higher 2026 guidance, a newly declared dividend, and TSX graduation all point to a company that has stepped into a larger post-merger revenue base with improving capital-markets relevance.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.2.
What can break
Dividend sustainability risk despite inaugural declaration
Momentum
95
Value
39
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $21.50 · Bull $24.50 · Bear $16.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $22.40
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d -0.3
Value39 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +3.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Dividend sustainability risk despite inaugural declaration
  • • Gold and copper price sensitivity embedded in guidance assumptions
  • • The current thesis still rests mostly on company press releases rather than a broader set of primary filings or independent operating datapoints, and delivery depends on third-party mine operators, metal prices, and smooth post-merger execution.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-31

Post-TSX graduation trading and visibility reset

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
95
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.4
Value
39
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.2
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 95.1 / Value 39.5 / Sentiment 62.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$21.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.37B
Beta
0.31
Shares Out
63.83M
P/E (TTM)
79.2
P/S (TTM)
31.81
P/FCF (TTM)
47.96
Rev YoY
+161.6%
EPS YoY
+760.0%
Gross Margin
+65.9%
Op Margin
+20.6%
Net Debt
-$68.77M
Current Ratio
5.48
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data