B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$31.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ELAN
Elanco Animal HealthANYSE / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue increased 10% year over year and 8% organically at constant currency, with both price and volume contributing. Raised revenue, EBITDA, EPS, innovation-revenue, and leverage targets indicate improving operating momentum, while three August director open-market purchases provide a secondary alignment signal.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.1.
What can break
Befrena demand was reported above expectations, making manufacturing-capacity execution important to converting demand into revenue. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Momentum
61
Value
61
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $25.00 · Bull $31.50 · Bear $17.50Analysis 2026-09-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.50
Why
Momentum61 · Δ7d +4.5
Value61 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +6.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Befrena demand was reported above expectations, making manufacturing-capacity execution important to converting demand into revenue. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
- • Even the direct animal-health peers differ materially in scale, geographic mix, livestock exposure, product mix, and diversification, limiting clean valuation comparisons.
- • The thesis now depends on sustained uptake of newer products, successful capacity expansion, margin delivery, and deleveraging.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-06
Q3 2026 results and outlook checkpoint
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
61
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.5
Δ21d
+45.8
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
64
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.1
Δ21d
-12.7
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 61.4 / Value 60.7 / Sentiment 64.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-22. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$11.25B
Beta
1.87
Shares Out
499.62M
P/E (TTM)
321.8
P/S (TTM)
2.49
P/FCF (TTM)
31.64
Rev YoY
+10.2%
EPS YoY
+380.6%
Gross Margin
+44.3%
Op Margin
+6.6%
Net Debt
$3.6B
Current Ratio
2.05
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data