B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
EL
Estee Lauder CompaniesDNYSE / Household & Personal Products
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Fiscal-2026 sales returned to growth and adjusted operating margin expanded from 8.0% to 11.2%; meeting the raised fiscal-2027 margin range alongside 3%–5% organic growth could support further re-rating. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-19]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
What can break
China travel-retail customer concentration: an active largest-customer relationship accounted for $161 million, or 10%, of EL accounts receivable at June 30, 2026, versus $97 million, or 7%, at June 30, 2025. These are receivables shares, not revenue shares. [#REL-5660d053-996d-4b14-85d4-4128cb545b84] Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001250/000100125026000041/el-20260630.htm
Momentum
82
Value
45
Sentiment
41
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $96.00 · Bull $120.00 · Bear $66.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $109.29
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d +14.9
Value45 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment41 · Δ7d -3.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • China travel-retail customer concentration: an active largest-customer relationship accounted for $161 million, or 10%, of EL accounts receivable at June 30, 2026, versus $97 million, or 7%, at June 30, 2025. These are receivables shares, not revenue shares. [#REL-5660d053-996d-4b14-85d4-4128cb545b84] Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001250/000100125026000041/el-20260630.htm
- • Fiscal-2027 organic growth of 3%–5% and adjusted operating margin of 12.7%–13.5% are execution-dependent; tariff and inflation pressure could offset recovery-plan gains. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-19]
- • The recovery must persist across brands and regions while absorbing inflation and incremental tariff costs.
Catalyst clock
2027-06-30
Fiscal 2027 growth and margin delivery
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
82
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+14.9
Δ21d
+20.6
Value
45
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
41
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.4
Δ21d
-24.8
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 82.1 / Value 45.2 / Sentiment 41.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$96.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$66.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$39.37B
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
362.32M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
216.3
P/S (TTM)
2.70
P/FCF (TTM)
72.18
Rev YoY
+6.8%
EPS YoY
-78.9%
Gross Margin
+75.5%
Op Margin
+11.2%
Net Debt
$5.75B
Current Ratio
1.22
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data