B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
EDUC
Educational DevelopmentDNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The balance sheet looks less fragile after the $32.2 million property sale, debt payoff, retained excess land, and the later backup revolver; if these moves let EDUC restock new titles and stabilize the PaperPie channel, equity torque is high from a $11.8 million market cap base [#PR-2025-10-28] [#8-K-2026-03-11].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Micro-cap liquidity and sparse coverage can amplify downside on any weak filing or quarter.
Momentum
76
Value
48
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.20 · Bull $2.10 · Bear $0.60Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -
Value48 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment49 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Micro-cap liquidity and sparse coverage can amplify downside on any weak filing or quarter.
- • PaperPie brand-partner count may keep shrinking despite new-title purchases.
- • Recent operating trends were still poor, with revenue and active brand partners down sharply, and the new revolver can also be read as evidence that self-funded recovery is not yet proven; if assortment refresh does not revive channel productivity, the stock can drift lower despite cleaner balance-sheet optics [#PR-2026-01-08] [#10-Q-2026-01-13].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-20
FY2026 annual filing likely becomes the first clean read on post-asset-sale liquidity and inventory rebuild
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
76
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-2.1
Sentiment
49
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 75.8 / Value 48.1 / Sentiment 49.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$1.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.76M
Beta
1.06
Shares Out
8.52M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
5.1
P/S (TTM)
0.40
P/FCF (TTM)
3.13
Rev YoY
-33.1%
EPS YoY
+30.9%
Gross Margin
+59.8%
Op Margin
-33.5%
Net Debt
$5.38M
Current Ratio
3.20
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data