B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
EDU
New Oriental Education GroupCNYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q3 FY2026 showed strong operating leverage: revenue rose 19.8% YoY, operating income rose 44.8%, non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 14.3%, and management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to US$5.56B-US$5.60B. New educational initiatives, AI-enabled learning, and customer-retention infrastructure could keep the mix improving if execution holds.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.4.
What can break
Execution risk remains explicit around teaching quality, service quality, cost structure, and maintaining the New Oriental brand.
Momentum
79
Value
58
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $50.00 · Bull $68.00 · Bear $36.00Analysis 2026-05-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $75.00
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d -2.9
Value58 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment50 · Δ7d +8.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution risk remains explicit around teaching quality, service quality, cost structure, and maintaining the New Oriental brand.
- • Management's outlook is subject to FX and other change; the release gives FY2026 revenue guidance but not a deeper multi-quarter operating roadmap.
- • The release is still backward-looking, and the company remains exposed to PRC policy, China consumer demand, overseas test-prep sensitivity, and execution risk around teaching quality, pricing, and new business lines.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-22
Q3 FY2026 beat and FY2026 revenue guide raise
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
79
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.9
Δ21d
-3.7
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
50
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.4
Δ21d
-3.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 78.6 / Value 58.1 / Sentiment 50.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-22. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$50.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.56B
Beta
0.27
Shares Out
159.15M
P/E (TTM)
25.4
P/S (TTM)
1.96
P/FCF (TTM)
10.81
Rev YoY
+22.9%
EPS YoY
+786.0%
Gross Margin
+54.6%
Op Margin
+11.4%
Net Debt
-$4.44B
Current Ratio
1.50
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data