RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

EDU

New Oriental Education GroupD
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Q3 FY2026 showed strong operating leverage: revenue rose 19.8% YoY, operating income rose 44.8%, non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 14.3%, and management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to US$5.56B-US$5.60B. New educational initiatives, AI-enabled learning, and customer-retention infrastructure could keep the mix improving if execution holds.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26.
What can break
Execution risk remains explicit around teaching quality, service quality, cost structure, and maintaining the New Oriental brand.
Momentum
87
Value
51
Sentiment
39
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $50.00 · Bull $68.00 · Bear $36.00Analysis 2026-05-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-26
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $74.86
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d +0.3
Value51 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment39 · Δ7d +4.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution risk remains explicit around teaching quality, service quality, cost structure, and maintaining the New Oriental brand.
  • • Management's outlook is subject to FX and other change; the release gives FY2026 revenue guidance but not a deeper multi-quarter operating roadmap.
  • • The release is still backward-looking, and the company remains exposed to PRC policy, China consumer demand, overseas test-prep sensitivity, and execution risk around teaching quality, pricing, and new business lines.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-26

Q3 FY2026 beat and FY2026 revenue guide raise

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
87
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+4.4
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-7.8
Sentiment
39
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.4
Δ21d
-10.5
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 87.1 / Value 51.2 / Sentiment 38.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$50.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$8.2B
Beta
0.27
Shares Out
139.89M
P/E (TTM)
25.4
P/S (TTM)
1.96
P/FCF (TTM)
10.81
Rev YoY
+22.9%
EPS YoY
+786.0%
Gross Margin
+54.6%
Op Margin
+11.4%
Net Debt
-$4.44B
Current Ratio
1.50
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data