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DSGR

Distribution Solutions GroupC
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The $35.00 cash transaction provides a defined near-term value anchor, while Q2 showed stronger organic growth, sequential margin recovery, and improved cash generation. The company’s 10-K identifies GWW, FAST, MSM, AIT, DXPE, and GIC as peer-group companies with similar-margin benchmarking relevance [#10-K-2026-03-05].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
What can break
Gross-margin pressure from customer and vertical mix shifts and higher inbound tariff rates could offset revenue growth.
Momentum
84
Value
52
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.95 · Bull $35.00 · Bear $29.50Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $35.00
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d +2.4
Value52 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment54 · Δ7d +1.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Gross-margin pressure from customer and vertical mix shifts and higher inbound tariff rates could offset revenue growth.
  • • Merger completion, financing, regulatory, or shareholder-process risk could reopen standalone valuation risk.
  • • The remaining spread is minimal, and deal failure could cause a material repricing toward a lower standalone valuation.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29

Q2 operating improvement and muted market response

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
84
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
+3.0
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
-8.9
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 84.2 / Value 52.0 / Sentiment 53.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
75%
Probability
Target price
$34.95
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
10%
Probability
Target price
$29.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.62B
Beta
0.52
Shares Out
46.26M
P/E (TTM)
326.3
P/S (TTM)
0.68
P/FCF (TTM)
22.60
Rev YoY
+11.0%
EPS YoY
+70.3%
Gross Margin
+30.0%
Op Margin
+4.2%
Net Debt
$743.79M
Current Ratio
2.54
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data