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DSGR

Distribution Solutions GroupB
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The $35.00 cash transaction provides a defined near-term value anchor, while Q2 showed stronger organic growth, sequential margin recovery, and improved cash generation. The company’s 10-K identifies GWW, FAST, MSM, AIT, DXPE, and GIC as peer-group companies with similar-margin benchmarking relevance [#10-K-2026-03-05].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.8.
What can break
Gross-margin pressure from customer and vertical mix shifts and higher inbound tariff rates could offset revenue growth.
Momentum
90
Value
54
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.95 · Bull $35.00 · Bear $29.50Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $35.00
Why
Momentum90 · Δ7d +3.8
Value54 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +5.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Gross-margin pressure from customer and vertical mix shifts and higher inbound tariff rates could offset revenue growth.
  • • Merger completion, financing, regulatory, or shareholder-process risk could reopen standalone valuation risk.
  • • The remaining spread is minimal, and deal failure could cause a material repricing toward a lower standalone valuation.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-06

Q2 operating improvement and muted market response

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
90
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.8
Δ21d
+1.7
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-2.7
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.8
Δ21d
+1.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 89.5 / Value 53.7 / Sentiment 62.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
75%
Probability
Target price
$34.95
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
10%
Probability
Target price
$29.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.61B
Beta
0.52
Shares Out
46.26M
P/E (TTM)
326.3
P/S (TTM)
0.68
P/FCF (TTM)
22.60
Rev YoY
+11.0%
EPS YoY
+70.3%
Gross Margin
+30.0%
Op Margin
+4.2%
Net Debt
$743.79M
Current Ratio
2.54
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data