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DRS

Leonardo DRSA
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 showed strong operating momentum: revenue rose 10%, adjusted EBITDA rose 33%, bookings reached $1.1 billion, funded backlog hit a record $5.1 billion, and management raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS guidance. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.9.
What can break
Backlog conversion timing, program execution, and margin normalization could disappoint after a strong Q2.
Momentum
18
Value
51
Sentiment
94
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $45.00 · Bull $55.00 · Bear $32.00Analysis 2026-09-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $54.89
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d -1.0
Value51 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment94 · Δ7d +8.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Backlog conversion timing, program execution, and margin normalization could disappoint after a strong Q2.
  • • Multiple officer open-market sales create a potential supply and sentiment overhang; insider activity is mixed rather than uniformly negative. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-05]
  • • The thesis depends on backlog conversion, sustained program execution and margin expansion, and successful Raft closing and integration.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

Insider-sale overhang

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-32.4
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.7
Sentiment
94
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.9
Δ21d
+22.1
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 18.4 / Value 51.5 / Sentiment 93.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$12.1B
Beta
0.45
Shares Out
266.89M
P/E (TTM)
37.6
P/S (TTM)
2.76
P/FCF (TTM)
51.01
Rev YoY
+10.1%
EPS YoY
+59.3%
Gross Margin
+24.3%
Op Margin
+10.6%
Net Debt
-$177M
Current Ratio
1.92
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data