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DowB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q3 EPS beat, $1.1 billion of free cash flow and above-consensus Q4 adjusted EBITDA outlook support a positive near-term revision case if polyethylene margins and cost savings hold. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22] Reuters
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.2.
What can break
European shutdowns and Transform to Outperform carry execution costs and uncertain timing of projected benefits. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
Momentum
74
Value
56
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $38.00 · Bear $25.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $34.00
Why
Momentum74 · Δ7d +22.4
Value56 · Δ7d -1.2
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -1.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • European shutdowns and Transform to Outperform carry execution costs and uncertain timing of projected benefits. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
  • • Higher raw-material, energy and logistics costs and Middle East-related supply disruption could erode margins or constrain production. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
  • • Q3 sales growth depended heavily on price: local price rose 14% while volume fell 1%.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-06

Q3 earnings beat and cash generation

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
74
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+22.4
Δ21d
+39.8
Value
56
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
-2.1
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.7
Δ21d
-21.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 73.9 / Value 55.8 / Sentiment 57.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$23.56B
Beta
0.77
Shares Out
722.34M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-8.8
P/S (TTM)
0.43
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
39.67
Rev YoY
+19.7%
EPS YoY
-183.4%
Gross Margin
+9.4%
Op Margin
+3.6%
Net Debt
$15.26B
Current Ratio
1.75
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data