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DOW

DowC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Operational execution and a clearer capital-allocation signal (restored buybacks or higher dividend) combined with a cyclical demand rebound could push the stock materially above current levels toward the high end of published analyst targets.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.0.
What can break
A sharp rise in raw-material or energy costs could compress EBITDA and cash flow if higher input prices cannot be passed through to customers [#SERP-1].
Momentum
32
Value
58
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $29.01 · Bull $45.00 · Bear $22.00Analysis 2026-02-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $35.24
Why
Momentum32 · Δ7d +2.1
Value58 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment67 · Δ7d +10.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A sharp rise in raw-material or energy costs could compress EBITDA and cash flow if higher input prices cannot be passed through to customers [#SERP-1].
  • • Execution risk on restructuring and cost-savings programs could lead to higher-than-expected charges or delayed benefits, undermining near-term cash generation [#SERP-4].
  • • Persistently weak demand, margin compression from input-cost pressure, or further dividend reductions could drive the stock toward the low analyst targets and below current consensus, reflecting cyclicality and leverage risk.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-05

Quarterly results / near-term guidance update

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
32
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.1
Δ21d
-0.8
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+10.9
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.0
Δ21d
+8.9
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 32.3 / Value 58.1 / Sentiment 66.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$29.01
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$22.64B
Beta
0.77
Shares Out
722.34M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-8.5
P/S (TTM)
0.43
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
38.12
Rev YoY
+19.7%
EPS YoY
-183.4%
Gross Margin
+9.4%
Op Margin
+3.6%
Net Debt
$15.26B
Current Ratio
1.75
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data