B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
DNOW
DNOWDNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary sources support a real growth and mix story: Q1 revenue reached $1.183 billion, midstream grew 70% year over year, gas-utility demand remains tied to multi-year replacement programs, and management highlighted early data-center awards plus faster-than-planned synergy capture. [#8-K-2026-05-07][#10-Q-2026-05-07]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.9.
What can break
Acquisition execution risk remains elevated as Edge Controls purchase accounting is still preliminary and future acquisitions are still part of the capital-allocation plan.
Momentum
89
Value
47
Sentiment
39
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.75 · Bull $16.25 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.60
Why
Momentum89 · Δ7d -2.8
Value47 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment39 · Δ7d +2.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Acquisition execution risk remains elevated as Edge Controls purchase accounting is still preliminary and future acquisitions are still part of the capital-allocation plan.
- • Integration execution remains the central risk, including whether MRC-related synergies and ERP remediation actually translate into cleaner margins and less working-capital drag.
- • The post-print problem is that earnings quality lagged revenue: adjusted EPS was only $0.01, GAAP net loss was $44 million, operating cash flow was negative $95 million, and Q1 included $41 million of inventory-related transaction charges plus added leverage from revolver borrowing.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-31
Post-earnings digestion still leans cautious after EPS and cash-flow pressure
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
89
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.8
Δ21d
-0.8
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-8.3
Sentiment
39
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.9
Δ21d
+0.8
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 89.1 / Value 46.9 / Sentiment 39.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$12.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.92B
Beta
0.79
Shares Out
180.79M
P/E (TTM)
15.2
P/S (TTM)
1.05
P/FCF (TTM)
14.40
Rev YoY
+108.1%
EPS YoY
-193.9%
Gross Margin
+15.9%
Op Margin
-2.5%
Net Debt
$450M
Current Ratio
2.14
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data