B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
DNA
Ginkgo BioworksCNYSE / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
If autonomous labs keep converting partner science into repeatable revenue and 2026 cash burn stays within management's reiterated range, Ginkgo can justify some recovery value on the platform story after the Biosecurity divestiture.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
News driver: Drone με εκρηκτικά στο αεροδρόμιο Λειψίας : σε ποιον οδηγεί το εντοπισμένο ίχνος DNA ;.
What can break
Continuing operations still lost $76.1 million in the quarter, while adjusted EBITDA remained negative at $42 million.
Momentum
5
Value
41
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.00 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $4.00Analysis 2026-05-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.00
Why
Momentum5 · Δ7d -3.9
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +7.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • News driver: Drone με εκρηκτικά στο αεροδρόμιο Λειψίας : σε ποιον οδηγεί το εντοπισμένο ίχνος DNA ;.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Continuing operations still lost $76.1 million in the quarter, while adjusted EBITDA remained negative at $42 million.
- • Ginkgo reaffirmed 2026 cash-burn guidance of $(150) million to $(125) million; any deterioration against that range would quickly shift the debate back toward runway and financing risk.
- • Revenue still fell sharply in Q1, the company remains cash-burning, and the monetization path for autonomous labs is not yet proven, so the stock can stay trapped as a dilution-sensitive story despite the current liquidity cushion.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-07
Q1 2026 print showed weaker revenue but preserved liquidity
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
5
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.9
Δ21d
-3.0
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.5
Δ21d
+15.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 5.1 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 66.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-20. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$466M
Beta
1.56
Shares Out
64.34M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.3
P/S (TTM)
2.83
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.41
Rev YoY
-48.5%
EPS YoY
+4.3%
Gross Margin
+34.6%
Op Margin
-258.0%
Net Debt
$10.23M
Current Ratio
4.57
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data