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DMRC

DigimarcA
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary-source evidence improved in Q4: Digimarc reported positive non-GAAP net income and positive free cash flow, signed a first commercial Secure Gift Card order, cited rollout work with eight North American retailers, and said it expects significant ARR growth in 2026 [#8-K-2026-03-11]. The packet's median analyst target of $15.0 implies upside versus the $7.15 anchor, though target count is unavailable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -11.3.
What can break
A meaningful part of the forward thesis rests on pilots, channel integrations, and ecosystem adoption in gift cards, recycling, and digital trust; the 10-K explicitly frames scaled deployment in recycling as uncertain and dependent on technical, capital, and regulatory follow-through [#10-K-2026-03-11].
Momentum
2
Value
35
Sentiment
100
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.50 · Bull $11.00 · Bear $4.50Analysis 2026-04-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.50
Why
Momentum2 · Δ7d -0.2
Value35 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment100 · Δ7d -11.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -11.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A meaningful part of the forward thesis rests on pilots, channel integrations, and ecosystem adoption in gift cards, recycling, and digital trust; the 10-K explicitly frames scaled deployment in recycling as uncertain and dependent on technical, capital, and regulatory follow-through [#10-K-2026-03-11].
  • • ARR dropped 31% year over year to $13.7 million as of December 31, 2025 because previously disclosed commercial contracts expired in April and October 2025 [#10-K-2026-03-11] [#8-K-2026-03-11].
  • • The same earnings release showed ARR fell to $13.7 million from $20.0 million and FY2025 revenue fell to $33.9 million from $38.4 million after multiple contract expirations; cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities ended 2025 at $12.9 million, so the thesis still depends on converting pilots and partner activity into sustained ARR before liquidity tightens [#8-K-2026-03-11].

Catalyst clock

2026-05-12

May 12 Q1 print is the nearest proof point for ARR reacceleration

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
2
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.4
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
100
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.3
Δ21d
-3.2
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 1.9 / Value 35.1 / Sentiment 100.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$152.38M
Beta
1.64
Shares Out
22.48M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.5
P/S (TTM)
4.33
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-31.92
Rev YoY
-7.8%
EPS YoY
+43.0%
Gross Margin
+51.3%
Op Margin
-102.5%
Net Debt
-$7.65M
Current Ratio
1.42
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data