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DMRC

DigimarcF
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
A focused go-to-market rebuild could convert differentiated watermarking and product-identity technology into repeatable Retail and CPG wins. Q2 non-GAAP operating expenses declined to $8.1 million from $8.9 million, non-GAAP gross margin reached 83%, and free-cash-flow usage improved to $1.0 million, providing evidence that operating leverage is possible if ARR resumes growth [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
What can break
ARR fell 27% year over year to $11.6 million, with large contract expiration and step-down effects exposing concentration and renewal risk [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].
Momentum
2
Value
35
Sentiment
19
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.50 · Bull $8.00 · Bear $2.50Analysis 2026-09-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.50
Why
Momentum2 · Δ7d -0.4
Value35 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment19 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • ARR fell 27% year over year to $11.6 million, with large contract expiration and step-down effects exposing concentration and renewal risk [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].
  • • Cash, equivalents and marketable securities of $8.8 million leave limited room for a prolonged commercial recovery despite improved quarterly free-cash-flow usage [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].
  • • The operating evidence remains weak: Q2 revenue declined to $7.4 million, subscription revenue fell to $3.7 million, and ARR dropped to $11.6 million.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29

Commercial reset faces a 90-day proof window

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
2
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-
Value
35
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
19
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 1.9 / Value 35.0 / Sentiment 18.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$196.64M
Beta
1.64
Shares Out
27.05M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.9
P/S (TTM)
4.33
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-34.23
Rev YoY
-7.8%
EPS YoY
+43.0%
Gross Margin
+51.3%
Op Margin
-102.5%
Net Debt
-$7.65M
Current Ratio
1.42
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data