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DK

Delek USD
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case assumes sustained refinery margin recovery, stable throughput, and visible balance-sheet improvement enabling higher multiple and buybacks; strong operational execution would drive upside to the bull target.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Bear case assumes a prolonged decline in refining margins, unplanned outages or weak retail volumes, and slower deleveraging—driving compressions toward the bear target.
Momentum
91
Value
64
Sentiment
35
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $45.29 · Bull $53.48 · Bear $30.88Analysis 2025-11-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-11-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $67.83
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d +2.1
Value64 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment35 · Δ7d +0.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Bear case assumes a prolonged decline in refining margins, unplanned outages or weak retail volumes, and slower deleveraging—driving compressions toward the bear target.
  • • Mixed signals. Wait for cleaner trend confirmation.

Catalyst clock

No dated catalyst is available.

Quarterly results / refinery throughput update

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
91
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.1
Δ21d
-2.5
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+10.1
Sentiment
35
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
-5.8
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 90.5 / Value 63.7 / Sentiment 35.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-11-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$53.48
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$45.29
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$30.88
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.12B
Beta
0.83
Shares Out
61.23M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-178.9
P/S (TTM)
0.17
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
6.47
Rev YoY
+47.8%
EPS YoY
-254.3%
Gross Margin
+7.5%
Op Margin
+6.1%
Net Debt
$2.68B
Current Ratio
0.76
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data