B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$53.48
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
DK
Delek USCNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case assumes sustained refinery margin recovery, stable throughput, and visible balance-sheet improvement enabling higher multiple and buybacks; strong operational execution would drive upside to the bull target.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.
What can break
Bear case assumes a prolonged decline in refining margins, unplanned outages or weak retail volumes, and slower deleveraging—driving compressions toward the bear target.
Momentum
88
Value
63
Sentiment
35
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $45.29 · Bull $53.48 · Bear $30.88Analysis 2025-11-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-11-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $85.93
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d -7.9
Value63 · Δ7d +0.9
Sentiment35 · Δ7d -2.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Bear case assumes a prolonged decline in refining margins, unplanned outages or weak retail volumes, and slower deleveraging—driving compressions toward the bear target.
- • Mixed signals. Wait for cleaner trend confirmation.
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Quarterly results / refinery throughput update
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
88
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.9
Δ21d
-7.7
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
35
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.8
Δ21d
-5.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 87.9 / Value 63.4 / Sentiment 35.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-11-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$45.29
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$30.88
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$4.3B
Beta
0.83
Shares Out
61.23M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-187.2
P/S (TTM)
0.17
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
6.77
Rev YoY
+47.8%
EPS YoY
-254.3%
Gross Margin
+7.5%
Op Margin
+6.1%
Net Debt
$2.68B
Current Ratio
0.76
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data