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DINO

HF SinclairB
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Broad Q2 improvement, strong refining margins and volumes, higher Lubricants & Specialties profitability, increased dividend, and continued repurchases support a positive operating and capital-return case [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]. The proposed segment separation could provide additional upside if executed well.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Recent Form 4 activity includes a 2.375 million-share REH disposition and officer sales; this is a sentiment signal only and not evidence of operating deterioration [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-04].
Momentum
96
Value
62
Sentiment
41
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $91.00 · Bull $103.00 · Bear $68.00Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $125.43
Why
Momentum96 · Δ7d -1.2
Value62 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment41 · Δ7d +3.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Recent Form 4 activity includes a 2.375 million-share REH disposition and officer sales; this is a sentiment signal only and not evidence of operating deterioration [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-04].
  • • Refining performance depended on steady demand, tight supply, and favorable crack spreads, which may normalize [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
  • • Results remain exposed to refining-cycle normalization, renewable-operations charges, and execution risk around the proposed separation.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · BMO

Dividend increase and payment

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
96
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
+0.4
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
41
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
-11.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 96.4 / Value 62.3 / Sentiment 41.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$103.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$91.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$21.63B
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
177.78M
P/E (TTM)
23.7
P/S (TTM)
0.34
P/FCF (TTM)
30.61
Rev YoY
+53.2%
EPS YoY
+350.4%
Gross Margin
+10.1%
Op Margin
+8.6%
Net Debt
$2.25B
Current Ratio
1.97
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data