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DINO

HF SinclairC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Broad Q2 improvement, strong refining margins and volumes, higher Lubricants & Specialties profitability, increased dividend, and continued repurchases support a positive operating and capital-return case [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]. The proposed segment separation could provide additional upside if executed well.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Recent Form 4 activity includes a 2.375 million-share REH disposition and officer sales; this is a sentiment signal only and not evidence of operating deterioration [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-04].
Momentum
91
Value
67
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
7 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $91.00 · Bull $103.00 · Bear $68.00Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $96.64
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d +4.4
Value67 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +0.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Recent Form 4 activity includes a 2.375 million-share REH disposition and officer sales; this is a sentiment signal only and not evidence of operating deterioration [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-04].
  • • Refining performance depended on steady demand, tight supply, and favorable crack spreads, which may normalize [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
  • • Results remain exposed to refining-cycle normalization, renewable-operations charges, and execution risk around the proposed separation.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-02

Dividend increase and payment

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
91
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.4
Δ21d
+1.3
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+11.0
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
-11.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 91.3 / Value 67.0 / Sentiment 52.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$103.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$91.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$16.89B
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
177.78M
P/E (TTM)
23.7
P/S (TTM)
0.34
P/FCF (TTM)
30.61
Rev YoY
+53.2%
EPS YoY
+350.4%
Gross Margin
+10.1%
Op Margin
+8.6%
Net Debt
$2.25B
Current Ratio
1.97
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data