B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
DGICB
Donegal GroupDNasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 net income rose to $22.3 million from $16.9 million, supported by improved underwriting and investment income. Sustained underwriting profitability and a slower personal-lines decline could support a higher valuation.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.2.
What can break
Favorable prior-year reserve development may not recur; large fire losses increased year over year in Q2. [#8-K-2026-07-30]
Momentum
63
Value
59
Sentiment
33
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.50 · Bull $21.00 · Bear $12.50Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $21.00
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d -
Value59 · Δ7d -1.2
Sentiment33 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Favorable prior-year reserve development may not recur; large fire losses increased year over year in Q2. [#8-K-2026-07-30]
- • Higher incentives, technology costs and a smaller earned-premium base raised the Q2 expense ratio. [#8-K-2026-07-30]
- • Net premiums earned fell 4.0% in Q2, six-month operating income declined year over year, and part of the quarterly loss-ratio improvement came from below-average weather losses and favorable reserve development.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Test whether Q2 underwriting gains persist
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
63
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
33
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 63.1 / Value 59.2 / Sentiment 33.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$853.32M
Beta
0.02
Shares Out
36.64M
P/E (TTM)
8.1
P/S (TTM)
0.71
P/FCF (TTM)
10.99
Rev YoY
-2.4%
EPS YoY
+31.8%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+9.2%
Net Debt
$8.21M
Current Ratio
0.44
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data