B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$128.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
DG
Dollar GeneralCNYSE / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
DG delivered a clean company-source Q1 EPS and operating-profit beat, with 2.0% comps, 1.4% traffic growth, 65 bps of gross-margin expansion, and EPS of $2.00 [#SEC-8K-2026-06-02]. Post-print analyst reaction was mixed but not negative across the board: Telsey reportedly reiterated Market Perform with a $140 target, and Guggenheim reportedly raised its FY26 EPS estimate to about $7.40 while still flagging margin concerns.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.
What can break
Core shoppers remain under pressure from higher gas prices, SNAP cuts, and cautious spending, which could cap comp growth if the macro backdrop worsens.
Momentum
73
Value
58
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $115.00 · Bull $128.00 · Bear $94.00Analysis 2026-06-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $140.69
Why
Momentum73 · Δ7d +23.7
Value58 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment54 · Δ7d +7.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Core shoppers remain under pressure from higher gas prices, SNAP cuts, and cautious spending, which could cap comp growth if the macro backdrop worsens.
- • Markdowns, transportation costs, depreciation, utilities, and property taxes all pressured parts of the margin bridge in Q1, so execution needs to remain tight for the profit outlook to hold [#SEC-8K-2026-06-02].
- • Management left FY26 same-store-sales guidance unchanged rather than raising it, and Reuters highlighted continued strain on core customers from higher gas prices and SNAP cuts.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-05
Q1 beat and FY26 guide update
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
73
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+23.7
Δ21d
+26.5
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
54
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.9
Δ21d
-2.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 72.9 / Value 58.0 / Sentiment 54.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-05. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$115.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$94.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$26.49B
Beta
0.25
Shares Out
220.59M
P/E (TTM)
24.0
P/S (TTM)
0.73
P/FCF (TTM)
16.80
Rev YoY
+3.4%
EPS YoY
+12.6%
Gross Margin
+28.4%
Op Margin
+5.3%
Net Debt
$14.58B
Current Ratio
1.17
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data