B+
Bull case
10%
Probability
Target price
$31.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CZR
Caesars EntertainmentCNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The $31 cash consideration provides a defined near-term value reference, while regional growth and a potential digital profitability recovery offer some operating support. Recent analyst targets clustering near $31 reinforce the transaction ceiling rather than a broad standalone upside case.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.9.
What can break
Failure to obtain shareholder or regulatory approvals, or other delay or termination of the Fertitta transaction, could cause a substantial price reset [#IR-2026-05-28].
Momentum
60
Value
62
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $30.90 · Bull $31.50 · Bear $22.50Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $31.27
Why
Momentum60 · Δ7d +0.4
Value62 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +5.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Failure to obtain shareholder or regulatory approvals, or other delay or termination of the Fertitta transaction, could cause a substantial price reset [#IR-2026-05-28].
- • High leverage remains a material constraint, with approximately $11.8 billion of debt outstanding at June 30, 2026 [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
- • The Q2 print did not show broad operating acceleration: Las Vegas weakened, digital EBITDA declined, consolidated EBITDA fell, and leverage remains high.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-28
Q2 results showed a revenue beat but an earnings miss and weaker consolidated profitability
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
60
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+6.1
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.9
Δ21d
+1.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 59.6 / Value 62.2 / Sentiment 60.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
65%
Probability
Target price
$30.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.04B
Beta
2.03
Shares Out
203.72M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-12.3
P/S (TTM)
0.43
P/FCF (TTM)
12.85
Rev YoY
+3.0%
EPS YoY
-22.5%
Gross Margin
+37.7%
Op Margin
+17.7%
Net Debt
$24.65B
Current Ratio
0.85
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data