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CVLG

Covenant Logistics GroupD
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Improved load factors, successful contract renewals, and disciplined fleet optimization drive EBITDA margin expansion and stronger free‑cash‑flow conversion. Sustained execution and stable spot pricing would likely trigger multiple expansion and push the stock toward the bull target within the upper range of published analyst outcomes.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.9.
What can break
Broader macroeconomic slowdown reducing freight volumes
Momentum
27
Value
47
Sentiment
43
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $30.00 · Bull $36.00 · Bear $22.63Analysis 2026-01-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $51.75
Why
Momentum27 · Δ7d +18.8
Value47 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment43 · Δ7d -3.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Broader macroeconomic slowdown reducing freight volumes
  • • Contract churn or pricing compression
  • • Prolonged spot‑rate weakness, persistent fuel or labor inflation, or failed execution on network initiatives reduce revenue per load and compress margins.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

Analyst coverage / target revisions

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
27
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+18.8
Δ21d
+18.3
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-2.9
Sentiment
43
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.9
Δ21d
-4.0
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 26.8 / Value 46.7 / Sentiment 42.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.63
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$899.39M
Beta
1.22
Shares Out
25.38M
P/E (TTM)
21.8
P/S (TTM)
0.51
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-20.85
Rev YoY
+9.9%
EPS YoY
-11.2%
Gross Margin
+7.1%
Op Margin
+0.8%
Net Debt
$333.75M
Current Ratio
1.14
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data