CVLG

Covenant Logistics GroupD

NYSE / Transportation

At close

2026-07-18

Current thesis

Improved load factors, successful contract renewals, and disciplined fleet optimization drive EBITDA margin expansion and stronger free‑cash‑flow conversion. Sustained execution and stable spot pricing would likely trigger multiple expansion and push the stock toward the bull target within the upper range of published analyst outcomes.

Posture

Defensive

Lead driver

Momentum

What changed

Momentum remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.0.

What can break

Broader macroeconomic slowdown reducing freight volumes

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $30.00 · Bull $36.00 · Bear $22.63

Data freshness

Prices

As of 2026-07-18

Fundamentals

As of 2026-07-20 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-07-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Investment thesis

As of 2026-07-18

Supporting evidence

What

Grade D · Defensive

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $54.33

Why

Momentum89 · Δ7d +1.0

Value46 · Δ7d -0.4

Sentiment9 · Δ7d -3.1

So what

Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Lead driver: Momentum · See technicals

Momentum

26% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

+1.0

Δ21d

-2.6

Value

39% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

-0.4

Δ21d

-0.6

Sentiment

34% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-3.1

Δ21d

-4.5

Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 89.1 / Value 46.0 / Sentiment 9.4

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-07-20

Market Cap

$1.22B

Beta

1.22

Shares Out

25.17M

P/E (TTM)

21.8

P/S (TTM)

0.51

P/FCF (TTM) · Derived

-87.62

Rev YoY

+14.0%

EPS YoY

-29.0%

Gross Margin

+7.7%

Op Margin

+3.1%

Net Debt

$333.75M

Current Ratio

1.04

As of 2026-07-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology