B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
CTRN
Citi TrendsFNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Citi Trends leverages recent comp strength, tighter inventory and new distribution capabilities to expand margins; continued holiday outperformance and execution could drive multiple expansion and faster cash-flow conversion.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
A consumer slowdown or worsening supply-chain costs could reverse comps and compress margins; limited scale versus larger off-price peers would make recovery slower and more volatile.
Momentum
93
Value
48
Sentiment
17
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2025-12-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-12-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $91.00
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d -1.1
Value48 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment17 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A consumer slowdown or worsening supply-chain costs could reverse comps and compress margins; limited scale versus larger off-price peers would make recovery slower and more volatile.
- • Mixed signals. Wait for cleaner trend confirmation.
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Macro/consumer-spend or supply-chain pressure
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
93
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
-0.8
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.7
Sentiment
17
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 93.3 / Value 48.1 / Sentiment 17.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-12-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$605.33M
Beta
2.12
Shares Out
8.33M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
112.5
P/S (TTM)
0.47
P/FCF (TTM)
31.38
Rev YoY
+14.4%
EPS YoY
+757.4%
Gross Margin
+37.4%
Op Margin
-0.0%
Net Debt
$157.23M
Current Ratio
1.15
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data