B+
Bull case
35%
Probability
Target price
$5.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
CSTL
Castle BiosciencesFNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
If Castle secures broader reimbursement and demonstrates steady adoption of its diagnostic assays, revenue growth can accelerate and operating leverage could push valuation toward mid-single-digit multiples of near-term revenue, supporting upside to the bull target within 6–12 months.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
If adoption stalls or reimbursement decisions remain unfavorable, revenue will remain constrained, margins compress, and the share price could fall toward the bear target driven by multiple contraction and negative revisions.
Momentum
89
Value
37
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.60 · Bull $5.30 · Bear $2.40Analysis 2025-11-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-11-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $44.00
Why
Momentum89 · Δ7d -1.7
Value37 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • If adoption stalls or reimbursement decisions remain unfavorable, revenue will remain constrained, margins compress, and the share price could fall toward the bear target driven by multiple contraction and negative revisions.
- • Mixed signals. Wait for cleaner trend confirmation.
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Upcoming clinical / product updates
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
89
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.7
Δ21d
-3.3
Value
37
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-11.1
Sentiment
0
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 88.6 / Value 36.6 / Sentiment 0.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-11-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$3.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$914.96M
Beta
1.06
Shares Out
30.55M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-35.9
P/S (TTM)
3.31
P/FCF (TTM)
44.86
Rev YoY
+20.1%
EPS YoY
-144.3%
Gross Margin
+74.1%
Op Margin
-9.0%
Net Debt
-$262.49M
Current Ratio
6.04
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data