RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

CRTO

CriteoA
Nasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Underlying Retail Media growth, AI-advertising activity and repurchases could support a recovery if reported contribution and cash generation improve. Q2 repurchases totaled $30 million.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · BMO.
What can break
AI advertising activity has not yet been shown to offset the reported decline in Contribution ex-TAC. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Momentum
17
Value
72
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.00 · Bull $21.00 · Bear $10.00Analysis 2026-10-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-27 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $20.15
Why
Momentum17 · Δ7d +2.6
Value72 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +0.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI advertising activity has not yet been shown to offset the reported decline in Contribution ex-TAC. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
  • • Q2 Retail Media client-scope changes and Performance Media softness may persist into or beyond the November 4 report. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
  • • Q2 revenue fell 11%, Contribution ex-TAC fell 13%, and free cash flow was negative $38 million.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27 · BMO

November 4 results test reduced outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
17
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.6
Δ21d
-2.7
Value
72
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
-10.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 16.9 / Value 72.0 / Sentiment 62.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$729.08M
Beta
0.49
Shares Out
55.83M
P/E (TTM)
6.8
P/S (TTM)
0.54
P/FCF (TTM)
4.76
Rev YoY
-11.3%
EPS YoY
-42.6%
Gross Margin
+53.6%
Op Margin
+10.0%
Net Debt
-$215.86M
Current Ratio
1.29
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data