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CRGY

Crescent EnergyA
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Adjacent production and inventory, coupled with management's identified $140 million in potential annual synergies, could improve cash flow and support debt reduction if the acquisition closes and integration succeeds. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-08]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.
What can break
Acquisition closing conditions and final financing terms remain unresolved. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-08] [#8-K-2026-10-15]
Momentum
70
Value
68
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.00 · Bull $19.00 · Bear $10.00Analysis 2026-10-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.67
Why
Momentum70 · Δ7d -0.1
Value68 · Δ7d +0.8
Sentiment63 · Δ7d +21.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Acquisition closing conditions and final financing terms remain unresolved. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-08] [#8-K-2026-10-15]
  • • Potential equity dilution and additional debt could offset asset-level accretion on a per-share basis.
  • • The large purchase price, equity dilution identified in the prior baseline, possible acquisition borrowing, hedge-cash outflows and commodity exposure could limit per-share gains even if production rises.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-02

Third-quarter results and hedge-cash-flow test

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
70
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-19.5
Value
68
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+21.9
Δ21d
+6.4
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 69.8 / Value 68.5 / Sentiment 63.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-18. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$5.68B
Beta
1.20
Shares Out
410.46M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
25.2
P/S (TTM)
0.75
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
6.37
Rev YoY
+55.3%
EPS YoY
+117.2%
Gross Margin
+31.6%
Op Margin
+24.7%
Net Debt
$4.8B
Current Ratio
0.94
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data