B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.44
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CRGY
Crescent EnergyBNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The primary Q2 release supports a constructive operating thesis: record cash generation, stronger production, lower costs, accelerated Permian synergies, debt repayment, and enhanced 2026 guidance. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.3.
What can break
Commodity-price weakness or unfavorable hedge settlements could reduce cash flow; the July 8 filing disclosed expected second-quarter derivative cash payments of approximately $154 million. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-08]
Momentum
94
Value
70
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.50 · Bull $16.44 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-08-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.29
Why
Momentum94 · Δ7d +0.3
Value70 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +4.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Commodity-price weakness or unfavorable hedge settlements could reduce cash flow; the July 8 filing disclosed expected second-quarter derivative cash payments of approximately $154 million. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-08]
- • Production, cost, and capital guidance remain subject to operational and market conditions.
- • The thesis remains exposed to commodity prices, hedge settlement variability, and execution risk in converting the larger Permian synergy target into sustained free cash flow.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-03
Q2 results and 2026 outlook upgrade
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
94
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+13.9
Value
70
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+1.3
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.3
Δ21d
-8.7
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 93.7 / Value 70.0 / Sentiment 56.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.19B
Beta
1.20
Shares Out
330.4M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
23.1
P/S (TTM)
0.75
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
5.85
Rev YoY
+55.3%
EPS YoY
+117.2%
Gross Margin
+31.6%
Op Margin
+24.7%
Net Debt
$4.8B
Current Ratio
0.94
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data