B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$2.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CRDF
Cardiff OncologyDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The investment case rests on positive but early CRDF-004 efficacy, FDA-aligned Phase 3 planning, and potential confirmation in first-line RAS-mutated mCRC. The reported ORR differential and unreached median PFS could support rerating if reproduced in a registrational study [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-06-02] [#SEC-8K-2026-05-14].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
CRDF-004 remains an early, small-sample dose-finding study without confirmatory Phase 3 evidence.
Momentum
91
Value
41
Sentiment
42
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $0.85 · Bull $2.25 · Bear $0.40Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.18
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d -
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment42 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CRDF-004 remains an early, small-sample dose-finding study without confirmatory Phase 3 evidence.
- • Cardiff disclosed a license-agreement dispute with Nerviano concerning onvansertib [#SEC-8K-2026-05-19].
- • The company remains a low-coverage, clinical-stage biotech with no verified post-July-30 earnings update, no confirmed analyst revision signal, and substantial clinical uncertainty.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-04
Q2 earnings release and guidance check
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
91
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
42
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 90.6 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 41.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$0.85
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$70.35M
Beta
1.33
Shares Out
77.8M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.3
P/S (TTM)
381.84
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-1.50
Rev YoY
-14.0%
EPS YoY
-35.6%
Gross Margin
-75.2%
Op Margin
-8320.1%
Net Debt
-$57.47M
Current Ratio
3.30
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data