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CPAY

CorpayC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Execution continues: strong organic growth, margin expansion from product mix, and successful upsell to enterprise clients drive upside toward the analyst high; M&A or faster cross-border volume growth could push valuation above current consensus.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
What can break
Client concentration risk: loss or churn of a large account would materially hurt revenue [#SERP-2].
Momentum
80
Value
51
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $359.15 · Bull $440.00 · Bear $292.00Analysis 2026-02-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $458.50
Why
Momentum80 · Δ7d +2.0
Value51 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment49 · Δ7d -3.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Client concentration risk: loss or churn of a large account would materially hurt revenue [#SERP-2].
  • • Cross-border FX volatility that compresses take-rates and margins [#SERP-3].
  • • Regulatory or FX shocks, loss of large clients, or slower-than-expected adoption of higher-margin products compress volumes and margins, leaving the stock nearer the analyst low.

Catalyst clock

2026-02-04

Q4 2025 results & earnings call (reported)

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
80
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.0
Δ21d
+5.1
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
49
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.5
Δ21d
-11.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 79.7 / Value 50.9 / Sentiment 49.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-06. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$440.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$359.15
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$292.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$26.07B
Beta
0.82
Shares Out
65.66M
P/E (TTM)
21.0
P/S (TTM)
5.00
P/FCF (TTM)
18.88
Rev YoY
+21.5%
EPS YoY
-7.0%
Gross Margin
+73.2%
Op Margin
+45.8%
Net Debt
$1.12B
Current Ratio
0.97
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data