B+
Bull case
22%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CPAC
Cementos Pacasmayo SAABNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is operational rather than coverage-driven: 1Q26 filings showed revenue, operating profit and net income all improved year over year, and Holcim's control could eventually bring procurement, commercial or capital-allocation benefits. That upside remains conditional on post-control decisions and another quarter of operating confirmation.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
What can break
Holcim control introduces uncertainty around tender-offer mechanics, ADS listing status, governance, dividends and future capital allocation.
Momentum
96
Value
62
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.10 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $8.30Analysis 2026-06-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.01
Why
Momentum96 · Δ7d -
Value62 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment44 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Holcim control introduces uncertainty around tender-offer mechanics, ADS listing status, governance, dividends and future capital allocation.
- • The stored 1Q26 earnings context notes concrete revenue fell 15.2%, so cement strength may be carrying more of the growth burden than the headline results imply. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-04-28]
- • Forward visibility is limited because the key debate is governance and ownership outcome rather than only cement demand.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-31
1Q26 operating strength needs second-quarter confirmation
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
96
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
44
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 95.8 / Value 62.3 / Sentiment 43.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-05. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
53%
Probability
Target price
$10.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$1.15B
Beta
0.54
Shares Out
84.77M
P/E (TTM)
13.3
P/S (TTM)
1.53
P/FCF (TTM)
32.71
Rev YoY
+23.0%
EPS YoY
+72.1%
Gross Margin
+39.0%
Op Margin
+23.0%
Net Debt
$408.85M
Current Ratio
1.22
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data