B+
Bull case
22%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CPAC
Cementos Pacasmayo SAACNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is operational rather than coverage-driven: 1Q26 filings showed revenue, operating profit and net income all improved year over year, and Holcim's control could eventually bring procurement, commercial or capital-allocation benefits. That upside remains conditional on post-control decisions and another quarter of operating confirmation.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Holcim control introduces uncertainty around tender-offer mechanics, ADS listing status, governance, dividends and future capital allocation.
Momentum
96
Value
65
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.10 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $8.30Analysis 2026-06-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.89
Why
Momentum96 · Δ7d -
Value65 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Holcim control introduces uncertainty around tender-offer mechanics, ADS listing status, governance, dividends and future capital allocation.
- • The stored 1Q26 earnings context notes concrete revenue fell 15.2%, so cement strength may be carrying more of the growth burden than the headline results imply. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-04-28]
- • Forward visibility is limited because the key debate is governance and ownership outcome rather than only cement demand.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-31
1Q26 operating strength needs second-quarter confirmation
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
96
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
65
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+12.4
Sentiment
48
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 95.8 / Value 64.6 / Sentiment 47.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-05. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
53%
Probability
Target price
$10.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.1B
Beta
0.54
Shares Out
84.77M
P/E (TTM)
13.3
P/S (TTM)
1.53
P/FCF (TTM)
32.71
Rev YoY
+23.0%
EPS YoY
+72.1%
Gross Margin
+39.0%
Op Margin
+23.0%
Net Debt
$408.85M
Current Ratio
1.22
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data