B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1,100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
COST
Costco WholesaleDNasdaq / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Strong adjusted comps, digital growth and rising executive-member penetration support continued sales and renewal strength. Fiscal Q4 revenue and reported EPS exceeded the published consensus figures in the packet, although the EPS comparison includes the tariff-refund benefit.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Premium valuation could compress despite solid operating results.
Momentum
71
Value
42
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $975.00 · Bull $1,100.00 · Bear $760.00Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $1,076.00
Why
Momentum71 · Δ7d +1.2
Value42 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -0.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Premium valuation could compress despite solid operating results.
- • Slower paid-member growth or weaker renewals could challenge the membership thesis. September 24 earnings-call transcript
- • The $0.15 non-recurring EPS benefit reduces the apparent core surprise, while paid-member growth of 3.8% and a premium multiple leave little room for slower engagement.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-07
September sales results on October 7
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
71
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
+24.9
Value
42
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-18.9
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 71.0 / Value 41.8 / Sentiment 53.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$975.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$760.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$444.6B
Beta
1.00
Shares Out
443.13M
P/E (TTM)
46.9
P/S (TTM)
1.39
P/FCF (TTM)
57.52
Rev YoY
+11.6%
EPS YoY
+15.3%
Gross Margin
+12.9%
Op Margin
+3.8%
Net Debt
-$5.35B
Current Ratio
1.07
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data