B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1,125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
COST
Costco WholesaleBNasdaq / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull view is that Costco's Q3 company source again showed the core engine is intact: 11.6% net-sales growth, 6.6% adjusted comp growth, 89.7% worldwide renewal, 10.7% membership-income growth, and 21.5% digitally enabled comparable sales growth support durable membership compounding.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.1.
What can break
Any slowdown in renewal rates, traffic, paid memberships, membership-income growth, or digital growth would weaken the membership economics supporting the multiple.
Momentum
45
Value
42
Sentiment
78
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1,020.00 · Bull $1,125.00 · Bear $860.00Analysis 2026-05-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $1,085.55
Why
Momentum45 · Δ7d -3.1
Value42 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment78 · Δ7d +11.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Any slowdown in renewal rates, traffic, paid memberships, membership-income growth, or digital growth would weaken the membership economics supporting the multiple.
- • Gross margin remains a concrete post-print risk: the Q3 supplement showed gross margin of 11.04%, down 21 bps year over year, with core gross margin down 46 bps ex-gas and core-on-core sales down 9 bps [#8-K-2026-05-28].
- • The bear view is that this kind of quarter may still be insufficient at a premium multiple: the stock fell after the print, core gross margin was pressured, and any slowing in traffic, renewal, paid memberships, or digital growth would make the valuation harder to defend.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-28
Q3 print confirms strong operating momentum but no guidance reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
45
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.1
Δ21d
+8.4
Value
42
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
78
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.1
Δ21d
+9.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 45.3 / Value 42.1 / Sentiment 77.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$1,020.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$860.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$422.86B
Beta
1.00
Shares Out
443.48M
P/E (TTM)
46.9
P/S (TTM)
1.39
P/FCF (TTM)
57.52
Rev YoY
+11.6%
EPS YoY
+15.3%
Gross Margin
+12.9%
Op Margin
+3.8%
Net Debt
-$5.35B
Current Ratio
1.07
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data