B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CON
Concentra Group ParentBNYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print exceeded the pre-release consensus context on revenue and EPS, with strong EBITDA and free-cash-flow growth, while FY2026 guidance was raised. Continued visit growth, pricing and operating leverage could support future earnings revisions.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.3.
What can break
Director Robert Ortenzio reported repeated 130,000-share open-market sales from May through August; these are insider-activity signals, not evidence of operating weakness. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-05]
Momentum
79
Value
62
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $35.00 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $28.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $41.00
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d +2.0
Value62 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment65 · Δ7d +6.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Director Robert Ortenzio reported repeated 130,000-share open-market sales from May through August; these are insider-activity signals, not evidence of operating weakness. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-05]
- • Leadership changes take effect November 1, 2026, creating transition and execution risk.
- • The positive print is substantially reflected in the post-release price move.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q2 earnings beat and FY2026 guidance raise
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
79
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.0
Δ21d
-3.5
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+5.9
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.3
Δ21d
+6.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 79.3 / Value 61.9 / Sentiment 64.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.53B
Beta
-
Shares Out
127.52M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
27.4
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
19.35
Rev YoY
+10.0%
EPS YoY
+45.6%
Gross Margin
+25.8%
Op Margin
+16.7%
Net Debt
$2.02B
Current Ratio
1.38
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data