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CON

Concentra Group ParentC
NYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print exceeded the pre-release consensus context on revenue and EPS, with strong EBITDA and free-cash-flow growth, while FY2026 guidance was raised. Continued visit growth, pricing and operating leverage could support future earnings revisions.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
Director Robert Ortenzio reported repeated 130,000-share open-market sales from May through August; these are insider-activity signals, not evidence of operating weakness. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-05]
Momentum
88
Value
59
Sentiment
39
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $35.00 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $28.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $42.00
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d +3.0
Value59 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment39 · Δ7d -3.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Director Robert Ortenzio reported repeated 130,000-share open-market sales from May through August; these are insider-activity signals, not evidence of operating weakness. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-05]
  • • Leadership changes take effect November 1, 2026, creating transition and execution risk.
  • • The positive print is substantially reflected in the post-release price move.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-06

Q2 earnings beat and FY2026 guidance raise

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
88
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.0
Δ21d
+2.6
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
39
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.0
Δ21d
-18.0
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 88.2 / Value 59.5 / Sentiment 38.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$5.13B
Beta
-
Shares Out
127.52M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
31.0
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
21.89
Rev YoY
+10.0%
EPS YoY
+45.6%
Gross Margin
+25.8%
Op Margin
+16.7%
Net Debt
$2.02B
Current Ratio
1.38
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data