B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CODI
Compass DiversifiedBNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest post-earnings bull read is that CODI paired a completed Sterno monetization with debt paydown, Branded Consumer-led Q1 execution, and updated 2026 EBITDA guidance that management said is at or above the start-of-year outlook after adjusting for the divested business [#8-K-2026-05-06][#8-K-2026-05-05].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.3.
What can break
CODI suspended its common-share quarterly cash distribution in 2025, and the path back to broader capital-markets flexibility still depends on execution and deleveraging [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
Momentum
85
Value
49
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $14.00 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.00
Why
Momentum85 · Δ7d -1.8
Value49 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment65 · Δ7d +6.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CODI suspended its common-share quarterly cash distribution in 2025, and the path back to broader capital-markets flexibility still depends on execution and deleveraging [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
- • Control deficiencies and potential additional material weaknesses remain an explicit filing risk, limiting how quickly investors may restore trust [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
- • The bear read is that reported GAAP revenue still fell 5.9% year over year, Industrial EBITDA declined, common-share earnings remain negative, and management explicitly warned that one quarter does not prove a turnaround, leaving the stock dependent on continued execution while Lugano-related overhangs persist [#8-K-2026-05-06][#10-Q-2026-05-06].
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
June 30 leverage checkpoint is the nearest clean balance-sheet tell
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
85
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
-1.1
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.3
Δ21d
+3.2
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 84.7 / Value 49.4 / Sentiment 65.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$910.36M
Beta
1.07
Shares Out
75.24M
P/E (TTM)
450.4
P/S (TTM)
0.17
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-19.14
Rev YoY
-5.9%
EPS YoY
+5.9%
Gross Margin
+38.7%
Op Margin
+3.1%
Net Debt
$1.98B
Current Ratio
2.67
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data