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CNQ

Canadian Natural ResourcesC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Sustained higher oil prices and steady production lift FCF, enabling larger dividends and buybacks and re-rating CNQ toward analyst highs.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
11 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Operational disruptions or reserve downgrades
Momentum
71
Value
58
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
11 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $37.87 · Bull $51.62 · Bear $33.84Analysis 2026-01-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $52.41
Why
Momentum71 · Δ7d +1.3
Value58 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment49 · Δ7d +6.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 11 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Operational disruptions or reserve downgrades
  • • Regulatory/royalty changes in Canada
  • • Prolonged commodity weakness, operational setbacks or reserve downgrades compress cash flow and push valuation toward analyst lows in the mid-$30s.

Catalyst clock

2026-03-31

Commodity-price trajectory

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
71
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
-12.6
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+2.8
Sentiment
49
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 70.7 / Value 57.6 / Sentiment 49.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$51.62
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$37.87
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$33.84
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$101.61B
Beta
1.07
Shares Out
2.06B
P/E (TTM)
14.0
P/S (TTM)
2.39
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
29.60
Rev YoY
+69.5%
EPS YoY
+84.5%
Gross Margin
+29.4%
Op Margin
+26.6%
Net Debt
$13.9B
Current Ratio
1.00
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data