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CNO

CNO Financial GroupD
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case assumes continued margin expansion, favorable mortality vs. current assumptions, successful product repricing, and positive analyst revisions toward the high end of consensus; under this scenario flows and earnings resilience justify a premium to the analyst median.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
What can break
Distribution disruption or sales slowdown that reduces premium growth and revenue momentum
Momentum
65
Value
48
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $47.00 · Bull $53.55 · Bear $40.40Analysis 2026-02-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $57.80
Why
Momentum65 · Δ7d -4.0
Value48 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment45 · Δ7d +0.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Distribution disruption or sales slowdown that reduces premium growth and revenue momentum
  • • Material reserve strengthening or one-time loss recognition that weakens capital/earnings
  • • Bear case assumes adverse mortality/reserve developments, weaker premium growth, or material underwriting losses that force downgrades and push consensus toward the low end of analyst targets, compressing multiples and driving the stock below $41.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · AMC

Analyst 12-month target revisions

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
65
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.0
Δ21d
-13.8
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
45
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
-6.6
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 64.7 / Value 47.5 / Sentiment 45.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$53.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$40.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$5.01B
Beta
0.86
Shares Out
92.52M
P/E (TTM)
15.1
P/S (TTM)
0.91
P/FCF (TTM)
6.79
Rev YoY
+11.3%
EPS YoY
+45.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+14.5%
Net Debt
$3.16B
Current Ratio
3.55
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data