B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CNK
CinemarkDNYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The best post-print bull read is that Cinemark is converting a stronger 2026 film environment into both revenue growth and better unit economics, with Q1 revenue, EBITDA, and per-cap metrics all improving materially year over year. That supports a recovery path where premium formats, concessions, and operating discipline drive earnings faster than attendance alone.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.
What can break
Long-term debt remained about $1.90 billion at March 31, 2026, so the equity case still depends on maintaining attendance and per-cap momentum while servicing a meaningful fixed-cost and leverage base. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
Momentum
76
Value
60
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $30.50 · Bull $34.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $40.08
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -2.4
Value60 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment45 · Δ7d +0.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Long-term debt remained about $1.90 billion at March 31, 2026, so the equity case still depends on maintaining attendance and per-cap momentum while servicing a meaningful fixed-cost and leverage base. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
- • Q1 operating cash flow and free cash flow were still negative at $20.4 million and $58.1 million outflow, respectively, underscoring seasonal cash-generation risk despite better earnings. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
- • The bear read is that even a clearly better Q1 did not stop a sharp same-day selloff, implying the market wants more confidence in the remainder of the 2026 box-office slate, release-window stability, and cash generation.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-01
Post-earnings reset after stronger YoY Q1 but weak immediate market reaction
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
76
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.4
Δ21d
-13.1
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+4.2
Sentiment
45
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+3.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 76.0 / Value 60.3 / Sentiment 44.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$30.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.35B
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
115.91M
P/E (TTM)
22.1
P/S (TTM)
0.86
P/FCF (TTM)
10.79
Rev YoY
+15.5%
EPS YoY
+87.9%
Gross Margin
+20.8%
Op Margin
+13.4%
Net Debt
$2.65B
Current Ratio
0.84
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data