B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CNK
CinemarkDNYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The best post-print bull read is that Cinemark is converting a stronger 2026 film environment into both revenue growth and better unit economics, with Q1 revenue, EBITDA, and per-cap metrics all improving materially year over year. That supports a recovery path where premium formats, concessions, and operating discipline drive earnings faster than attendance alone.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03 · BMO.
What can break
Long-term debt remained about $1.90 billion at March 31, 2026, so the equity case still depends on maintaining attendance and per-cap momentum while servicing a meaningful fixed-cost and leverage base. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
Momentum
89
Value
58
Sentiment
34
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $30.50 · Bull $34.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-03 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $41.54
Why
Momentum89 · Δ7d +0.4
Value58 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment34 · Δ7d +1.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03 · BMO.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Long-term debt remained about $1.90 billion at March 31, 2026, so the equity case still depends on maintaining attendance and per-cap momentum while servicing a meaningful fixed-cost and leverage base. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
- • Q1 operating cash flow and free cash flow were still negative at $20.4 million and $58.1 million outflow, respectively, underscoring seasonal cash-generation risk despite better earnings. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
- • The bear read is that even a clearly better Q1 did not stop a sharp same-day selloff, implying the market wants more confidence in the remainder of the 2026 box-office slate, release-window stability, and cash generation.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-03 · BMO
Post-earnings reset after stronger YoY Q1 but weak immediate market reaction
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
89
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+5.6
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
34
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.9
Δ21d
-14.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 88.7 / Value 58.2 / Sentiment 34.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$30.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$4.58B
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
115.91M
P/E (TTM)
22.1
P/S (TTM)
0.86
P/FCF (TTM)
10.79
Rev YoY
+15.5%
EPS YoY
+87.9%
Gross Margin
+20.8%
Op Margin
+13.4%
Net Debt
$2.65B
Current Ratio
0.84
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data