B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$74.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CNC
CenteneCNYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The reaffirmed EPS floor and improved Q2 Commercial and Medicare health benefits ratios support a profitability-recovery case if gains prove recurring. Wellcare's announced 2027 offerings create a concrete enrollment test, but no favorable outcome is established.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
At-risk membership fell to 25.9 million from 28.0 million year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
Momentum
80
Value
65
Sentiment
39
Setup hits (3d)
4 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $61.00 · Bull $74.00 · Bear $47.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-27 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $71.78
Why
Momentum80 · Δ7d +1.4
Value65 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment39 · Δ7d -1.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · BMO.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • At-risk membership fell to 25.9 million from 28.0 million year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
- • Non-recurring Medicare and Commercial items contributed approximately $0.50 to the 2026 guidance increase. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
- • Approximately $0.50 of the guidance increase came from non-recurring items, at-risk membership declined year over year, and the Q2 Medicaid health benefits ratio was 93.9%.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-27 · BMO
2026 EPS guidance reaffirmed, not raised
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
80
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
+23.7
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
39
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-17.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 80.3 / Value 65.1 / Sentiment 39.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$61.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$34.66B
Beta
0.48
Shares Out
494M
P/E (TTM)
8.2
P/S (TTM)
0.12
P/FCF (TTM)
6.54
Rev YoY
+9.9%
EPS YoY
-527.7%
Gross Margin
+8.1%
Op Margin
+0.8%
Net Debt
$274M
Current Ratio
1.15
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data