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CMTG

Claros Mortgage TrustC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Asset resolutions reduced watchlist exposure, while subsequent loan activity lifted liquidity to $168 million and lowered pro forma net debt/equity to 1.7x. Successful monetization could stabilize book value and enable future capital redeployment.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Additional CECL reserves, loan charge-offs, or REO write-downs.
Momentum
80
Value
40
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.55 · Bull $2.75 · Bear $0.95Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $2.22
Why
Momentum80 · Δ7d -
Value40 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment64 · Δ7d -
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Additional CECL reserves, loan charge-offs, or REO write-downs.
  • • Capital redeployment or new originations may be delayed if monetizations do not complete as planned.
  • • The quarter showed severe credit stress: large CECL additions, four loan downgrades totaling $447 million, REO and held-for-sale losses, and a sharp book-value decline.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-29

Post-earnings credit and balance-sheet reset

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
80
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
40
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
64
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 79.7 / Value 39.6 / Sentiment 64.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$2.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$1.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.95
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$246.9M
Beta
1.21
Shares Out
141.08M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-0.5
P/S (TTM)
0.76
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-16.88
Rev YoY
-99.4%
EPS YoY
+39.3%
Gross Margin
+26.2%
Op Margin
-278.3%
Net Debt
$2.95B
Current Ratio
2.01
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data