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CMP

Compass Minerals InternationalB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Plant Nutrition adjusted EBITDA rose 32% year over year, guidance was raised, highway pricing and tenders are constructive, and leverage has improved materially. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
What can break
Mining maintenance, labor, inflation, and operational-improvement execution remain above or below plan respectively. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Momentum
11
Value
63
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $31.00 · Bull $36.00 · Bear $20.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.75
Why
Momentum11 · Δ7d +2.0
Value63 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment74 · Δ7d -0.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Mining maintenance, labor, inflation, and operational-improvement execution remain above or below plan respectively. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
  • • Plant Nutrition quarterly revenue and volume declined following the Wynyard SOP disposition, despite better pricing and margins.
  • • Salt adjusted EBITDA declined 15% on lower volumes and higher per-unit and distribution costs; mining-cost improvement is lagging plan, and the COO transition adds execution uncertainty.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-03

Operational and leadership execution watch

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
11
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.0
Δ21d
-7.9
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-4.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 11.5 / Value 63.0 / Sentiment 74.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.08B
Beta
1.17
Shares Out
41.98M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-13.5
P/S (TTM)
0.70
P/FCF (TTM)
6.81
Rev YoY
+0.3%
EPS YoY
-66.8%
Gross Margin
+16.8%
Op Margin
+8.5%
Net Debt
$841.9M
Current Ratio
2.01
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data