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CMCO

Columbus McKinnonD
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The supportable bull case is not macro beta alone: Q3 fiscal 2026 showed 10% sales growth, 11% order growth and 15% backlog growth, and management cited strength in lifting, linear motion and automation plus U.S. demand stabilization.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.7.
What can break
EMEA order conversion was described as slow in the Q3 release, creating risk that backlog conversion and margin realization lag expectations.
Momentum
88
Value
43
Sentiment
46
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.00 · Bull $22.00 · Bear $10.00Analysis 2026-05-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $26.00
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d +0.5
Value43 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment46 · Δ7d -1.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • EMEA order conversion was described as slow in the Q3 release, creating risk that backlog conversion and margin realization lag expectations.
  • • Kito Crosby integration may take longer or cost more than expected, delaying the promised $70 million synergy path.
  • • The bear case is that CMCO is still in a messy transition: management withdrew standalone FY26 guidance, said EMEA order conversion remained slow, and the Kito deal added a $1.65 billion term loan B plus a $500 million revolver framework at close.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-31

Divestiture proceeds can help balance-sheet repair, but the first use-of-cash update matters

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
-4.4
Value
43
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+3.0
Sentiment
46
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.7
Δ21d
+3.0
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 88.0 / Value 42.9 / Sentiment 45.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-05. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$550.73M
Beta
1.32
Shares Out
28.86M
P/E (TTM)
134.4
P/S (TTM)
0.54
P/FCF (TTM)
24.63
Rev YoY
+125.3%
EPS YoY
+2991.8%
Gross Margin
+23.8%
Op Margin
+1.4%
Net Debt
$2.39B
Current Ratio
2.00
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data