B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CLFD
ClearfieldDNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q3 print showed year-over-year revenue and EPS growth, and the newly disclosed $22 million hyperscale order could expand Clearfield's addressable market and reduce reliance on traditional broadband deployments.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.0.
What can break
BEAD-related demand remains timing-sensitive, leaving broadband deployment visibility limited.
Momentum
19
Value
55
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $29.50 · Bull $38.00 · Bear $20.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $40.25
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d +8.4
Value55 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +5.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • BEAD-related demand remains timing-sensitive, leaving broadband deployment visibility limited.
- • Backlog declined 34% sequentially and included removal of a $4.6 million order no longer expected to be fulfilled.
- • The sequential backlog decline, canceled or unfulfilled order, lower gross margin, inventory charge, and nonrecurring tariff recovery make the quality of the earnings improvement uncertain.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-08
Q3 profitability and hyperscale order improve near-term sentiment
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
19
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.4
Δ21d
+10.4
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
56
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.0
Δ21d
-2.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 18.9 / Value 55.0 / Sentiment 55.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$29.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$400.18M
Beta
1.94
Shares Out
13.58M
P/E (TTM)
67.9
P/S (TTM)
2.87
P/FCF (TTM)
16.72
Rev YoY
+13.2%
EPS YoY
+31.1%
Gross Margin
+38.0%
Op Margin
+2.3%
Net Debt
-$97.22M
Current Ratio
12.53
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data