B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
CLDT
Chatham Lodging TrustFNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case: Sustained RevPAR and ADR recovery, successful asset sales/renovations, and lower refinancing costs or accretive equity that reduce leverage and re-rate the stock toward the analyst high ($9.50).
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.3.
What can break
Leverage, covenant pressure, or forced asset sales
Momentum
92
Value
51
Sentiment
23
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.16 · Bull $9.50 · Bear $6.00Analysis 2026-02-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.17
Why
Momentum92 · Δ7d +3.0
Value51 · Δ7d -
Sentiment23 · Δ7d +5.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Leverage, covenant pressure, or forced asset sales
- • Refinancing risk and rising mortgage/cap rates
- • Bear case: Prolonged RevPAR weakness, higher financing costs, or forced asset sales that compress FFO and multiples, driving the stock below current levels toward downside stress.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-27
Q1 2026 earnings / FFO and guidance update
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
92
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.0
Δ21d
+2.7
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
23
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.3
Δ21d
+3.8
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 91.6 / Value 50.6 / Sentiment 23.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$8.16
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$604.42M
Beta
1.14
Shares Out
46.57M
P/E (TTM)
608.5
P/S (TTM)
1.08
P/FCF (TTM)
23.31
Rev YoY
+9.4%
EPS YoY
+90.9%
Gross Margin
+25.1%
Op Margin
+10.2%
Net Debt
$326.34M
Current Ratio
0.54
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data