B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
CLDT
Chatham Lodging TrustFNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case: Sustained RevPAR and ADR recovery, successful asset sales/renovations, and lower refinancing costs or accretive equity that reduce leverage and re-rate the stock toward the analyst high ($9.50).
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Leverage, covenant pressure, or forced asset sales
Momentum
90
Value
50
Sentiment
22
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.16 · Bull $9.50 · Bear $6.00Analysis 2026-02-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.33
Why
Momentum90 · Δ7d +1.8
Value50 · Δ7d -
Sentiment22 · Δ7d +1.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Leverage, covenant pressure, or forced asset sales
- • Refinancing risk and rising mortgage/cap rates
- • Bear case: Prolonged RevPAR weakness, higher financing costs, or forced asset sales that compress FFO and multiples, driving the stock below current levels toward downside stress.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-27
Q1 2026 earnings / FFO and guidance update
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
90
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
-1.1
Value
50
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
22
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
-3.8
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 90.3 / Value 49.5 / Sentiment 21.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$8.16
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$653.32M
Beta
1.14
Shares Out
46.57M
P/E (TTM)
608.5
P/S (TTM)
1.08
P/FCF (TTM)
23.31
Rev YoY
+9.4%
EPS YoY
+90.9%
Gross Margin
+25.1%
Op Margin
+10.2%
Net Debt
$326.34M
Current Ratio
0.54
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data