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CHRD

Chord EnergyB
Nasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 release showed oil volumes at the high end of guidance, adjusted free cash flow of approximately $414 million, capex below the guidance midpoint, favorable realizations, and a planned increase in shareholder returns to 75% of free cash flow. Four-mile-lateral execution and base-production initiatives provide additional operating upside.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
FY26 LOE guidance increased because of production-enhancement initiatives, higher workover costs, and higher non-operated LOE. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Momentum
78
Value
69
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $145.00 · Bull $165.00 · Bear $112.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $168.06
Why
Momentum78 · Δ7d +0.4
Value69 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +7.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • FY26 LOE guidance increased because of production-enhancement initiatives, higher workover costs, and higher non-operated LOE. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
  • • Four-mile lateral and base-production initiatives may not deliver expected volumes or cost efficiencies.
  • • FY26 oil-volume and capex midpoint guidance were unchanged, while FY26 LOE midpoint increased to $10.30/Boe.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-20

Muted post-print reaction leaves room for estimate digestion

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
78
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-2.8
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+6.7
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.9
Δ21d
-1.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 77.8 / Value 69.1 / Sentiment 62.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.82B
Beta
0.90
Shares Out
54.7M
P/E (TTM)
30.9
P/S (TTM)
1.00
P/FCF (TTM)
10.51
Rev YoY
+84.0%
EPS YoY
-237.1%
Gross Margin
+20.8%
Op Margin
+18.9%
Net Debt
$1.32B
Current Ratio
1.22
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data