B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$140.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CHKP
Check Point SoftwareDNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source Q1 results still showed 5% revenue growth, 11% subscription growth, 7% RPO growth, and 11% adjusted free cash flow growth, which argues that the recurring base is holding up better than the appliance line [#PR-2026-04-30]. The Google Cloud AI Defense Plane partnership and Secure AI Advisory launch also support a longer-term AI security positioning case [#PR-2026-04-22] [#PR-2026-03-05].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.4.
What can break
AI security announcements are strategically relevant, but monetization timing is not yet demonstrated in reported numbers, so narrative strength could outpace financial proof.
Momentum
31
Value
64
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $118.00 · Bull $140.00 · Bear $92.00Analysis 2026-05-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $143.70
Why
Momentum31 · Δ7d +15.3
Value64 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment47 · Δ7d +6.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AI security announcements are strategically relevant, but monetization timing is not yet demonstrated in reported numbers, so narrative strength could outpace financial proof.
- • Check Point's 2025 Form 20-F identifies direct network-security competitors including Cisco, Fortinet, Palo Alto Networks and SonicWall, plus product-level competitors such as Zscaler and CrowdStrike, and says some rivals have greater resources, broader AI and machine-learning portfolios, and bundling capacity [#20F-2026-03-31].
- • The immediate problem is credibility on growth: Reuters said CHKP cut FY26 revenue guidance and issued Q2 revenue guidance below consensus, with management tying weakness to go-to-market changes in the appliance business.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-14
May-June investor conferences test whether management can de-risk sales execution
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
31
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+15.3
Δ21d
+12.2
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-2.2
Sentiment
47
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.4
Δ21d
-0.1
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 30.7 / Value 64.0 / Sentiment 47.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-05. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$92.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$12.97B
Beta
0.58
Shares Out
102.1M
P/E (TTM)
20.3
P/S (TTM)
7.40
P/FCF (TTM)
17.74
Rev YoY
+1.3%
EPS YoY
+1.9%
Gross Margin
+85.5%
Op Margin
+29.0%
Net Debt
-$1.01B
Current Ratio
1.67
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data