B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CHH
Choice Hotels InternationalCNYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The primary release supports a cautious constructive view: record revenue, royalty-rate expansion, stronger openings, rising franchise awards, capital recycling, and sharply lower expected 2026 hotel-development outlays all fit management's more capital-efficient growth story [#8-K-2026-04-30].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.9.
What can break
Adjusted diluted EPS dropped to $1.07 from $1.34 and adjusted EBITDA fell to $125.7 million from $129.6 million, with higher expenses and a temporarily elevated tax rate weighing on comparisons [#8-K-2026-04-30].
Momentum
30
Value
53
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $104.00 · Bull $112.00 · Bear $92.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $113.67
Why
Momentum30 · Δ7d -3.7
Value53 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment68 · Δ7d +3.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted diluted EPS dropped to $1.07 from $1.34 and adjusted EBITDA fell to $125.7 million from $129.6 million, with higher expenses and a temporarily elevated tax rate weighing on comparisons [#8-K-2026-04-30].
- • Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 3.2x at March 31, 2026; manageable, but it limits flexibility if room growth or RevPAR trends soften further [#8-K-2026-04-30].
- • The counterpoint is that adjusted EPS and EBITDA both declined year over year, reported U.S.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Post-print analyst digestion remains constrained by weak RevPAR and EPS miss
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
30
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.7
Δ21d
+1.0
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-4.0
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
+10.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 30.0 / Value 52.6 / Sentiment 67.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$104.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$92.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.72B
Beta
0.77
Shares Out
45.01M
P/E (TTM)
12.2
P/S (TTM)
2.88
P/FCF (TTM)
62.72
Rev YoY
+3.4%
EPS YoY
-19.1%
Gross Margin
+47.9%
Op Margin
+25.5%
Net Debt
$1.98B
Current Ratio
0.93
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data