B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CHEF
Chefs' WarehouseDNasdaq / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source evidence supports a constructive operating read: CHEF delivered double-digit revenue growth, organic case and pound growth, and margin expansion in Q1, while maintaining full-year guidance after a strong start. If that cadence persists into Q2, the market can justify modest upward estimate revisions.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
What can break
Exposure to independent restaurants and hospitality leaves demand sensitive to discretionary spending and local traffic conditions.
Momentum
82
Value
51
Sentiment
38
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $79.00 · Bull $88.00 · Bear $68.00Analysis 2026-05-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $124.75
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d -1.4
Value51 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment38 · Δ7d +5.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Exposure to independent restaurants and hospitality leaves demand sensitive to discretionary spending and local traffic conditions.
- • FY26 guidance was maintained rather than raised after a strong Q1, which increases the risk that investors treat the quarter as already priced in unless follow-through is visible.
- • The stock is already near the packet median target of $78.625 versus a $77.6 anchor, so much of the Q1 good news may already be reflected.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-28 · BMO
Q1 beat with margin expansion and maintained FY26 outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
82
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.4
Δ21d
-9.5
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+1.7
Sentiment
38
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.2
Δ21d
+3.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 81.6 / Value 51.1 / Sentiment 38.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$79.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$4.45B
Beta
1.30
Shares Out
40.8M
P/E (TTM)
35.3
P/S (TTM)
0.61
P/FCF (TTM)
28.66
Rev YoY
+12.9%
EPS YoY
+55.5%
Gross Margin
+24.5%
Op Margin
+4.1%
Net Debt
$853.92M
Current Ratio
2.15
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data