B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CHEF
Chefs' WarehouseDNasdaq / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source evidence supports a constructive operating read: CHEF delivered double-digit revenue growth, organic case and pound growth, and margin expansion in Q1, while maintaining full-year guidance after a strong start. If that cadence persists into Q2, the market can justify modest upward estimate revisions.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.2.
What can break
Exposure to independent restaurants and hospitality leaves demand sensitive to discretionary spending and local traffic conditions.
Momentum
92
Value
51
Sentiment
27
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $79.00 · Bull $88.00 · Bear $68.00Analysis 2026-05-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $119.44
Why
Momentum92 · Δ7d +8.1
Value51 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment27 · Δ7d +5.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Exposure to independent restaurants and hospitality leaves demand sensitive to discretionary spending and local traffic conditions.
- • FY26 guidance was maintained rather than raised after a strong Q1, which increases the risk that investors treat the quarter as already priced in unless follow-through is visible.
- • The stock is already near the packet median target of $78.625 versus a $77.6 anchor, so much of the Q1 good news may already be reflected.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-29
Q1 beat with margin expansion and maintained FY26 outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
92
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.1
Δ21d
+3.8
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+7.4
Sentiment
27
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.2
Δ21d
-0.9
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 92.2 / Value 51.2 / Sentiment 27.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$79.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.51B
Beta
1.30
Shares Out
40.8M
P/E (TTM)
35.3
P/S (TTM)
0.61
P/FCF (TTM)
28.66
Rev YoY
+12.9%
EPS YoY
+55.5%
Gross Margin
+24.5%
Op Margin
+4.1%
Net Debt
$853.92M
Current Ratio
2.15
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data