B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CHD
Church DwightBNYSE / Household & Personal Products
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The cleanest bullish read is that Q1 showed better-than-expected volume, margin expansion, and broad category strength while management still held full-year guidance rather than pulling forward optimism; Associated Press said revenue met Street forecasts, and Reuters-linked coverage indicated adjusted EPS beat consensus by a small amount, supporting a steady-but-not-breakout interpretation. The primary source also shows continued share gains and e-commerce penetration at 24% of consumer sales [#8-K-2026-05-01].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Lower Middle East sales and Middle East shipping disruption add regional demand and logistics risk [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
Momentum
60
Value
49
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $105.00 · Bull $112.00 · Bear $88.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $107.12
Why
Momentum60 · Δ7d +5.6
Value49 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment73 · Δ7d +10.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Lower Middle East sales and Middle East shipping disruption add regional demand and logistics risk [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
- • Operating cash flow fell year over year in Q1 as higher working capital and inventory purchases supported growth, so cash conversion needs continued discipline [#8-K-2026-05-01] [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
- • The cautious read is that the Q1 beat was not strong enough to trigger a major thesis upgrade because Q2 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.88 is softer than the tone of the quarter, Touchland-related amortization and SG&A remain a drag, and tariff/transport pressures are still active.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-01
Q1 beat versus company outlook with FY outlook maintained
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
60
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+5.6
Δ21d
+8.4
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
73
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.3
Δ21d
+5.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 59.5 / Value 49.2 / Sentiment 73.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$23.24B
Beta
0.46
Shares Out
237.2M
P/E (TTM)
26.5
P/S (TTM)
3.29
P/FCF (TTM)
27.42
Rev YoY
+1.6%
EPS YoY
+9.8%
Gross Margin
+43.5%
Op Margin
+17.5%
Net Debt
$1.97B
Current Ratio
1.15
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data