B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CHD
Church DwightCNYSE / Household & Personal Products
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The cleanest bullish read is that Q1 showed better-than-expected volume, margin expansion, and broad category strength while management still held full-year guidance rather than pulling forward optimism; Associated Press said revenue met Street forecasts, and Reuters-linked coverage indicated adjusted EPS beat consensus by a small amount, supporting a steady-but-not-breakout interpretation. The primary source also shows continued share gains and e-commerce penetration at 24% of consumer sales [#8-K-2026-05-01].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Lower Middle East sales and Middle East shipping disruption add regional demand and logistics risk [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
Momentum
69
Value
48
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
8 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $105.00 · Bull $112.00 · Bear $88.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-30 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $106.29
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d -3.9
Value48 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +0.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-30 · BMO.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Lower Middle East sales and Middle East shipping disruption add regional demand and logistics risk [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
- • Operating cash flow fell year over year in Q1 as higher working capital and inventory purchases supported growth, so cash conversion needs continued discipline [#8-K-2026-05-01] [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
- • The cautious read is that the Q1 beat was not strong enough to trigger a major thesis upgrade because Q2 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.88 is softer than the tone of the quarter, Touchland-related amortization and SG&A remain a drag, and tariff/transport pressures are still active.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-30 · BMO
Q1 beat versus company outlook with FY outlook maintained
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
69
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.9
Δ21d
+14.3
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-22.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 68.7 / Value 48.1 / Sentiment 52.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$24.95B
Beta
0.46
Shares Out
237.2M
P/E (TTM)
26.5
P/S (TTM)
3.29
P/FCF (TTM)
27.42
Rev YoY
+1.6%
EPS YoY
+9.8%
Gross Margin
+43.5%
Op Margin
+17.5%
Net Debt
$1.97B
Current Ratio
1.15
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data