B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CGAU
Centerra GoldCNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 confirmed strong free-cash-flow generation, a strengthened cash balance, unchanged 2026 gold and copper guidance, and enough balance-sheet capacity to self-fund growth while continuing buybacks and dividends.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Gold and copper guidance was maintained, but sustaining that outlook depends on continued production and cost execution at Mount Milligan and Öksüt.
Momentum
95
Value
64
Sentiment
46
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $17.50 · Bull $23.00 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $22.54
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d -0.3
Value64 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment46 · Δ7d -0.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Gold and copper guidance was maintained, but sustaining that outlook depends on continued production and cost execution at Mount Milligan and Öksüt.
- • Higher inventory and working-capital needs at Langeloth may not unwind in the near term, which can mute cash-conversion optics even if operations normalize.
- • The bear case is that Q1 was helped by strong realized prices and timing effects, while the real near-term re-rating gate is still Langeloth stabilization plus evidence that development spending does not erode cash-generation quality if operating conditions soften.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-31
Langeloth guidance with Q2 results remains the clearest near-term execution swing factor
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
95
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-1.7
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.4
Sentiment
46
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-5.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 94.5 / Value 63.7 / Sentiment 45.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.29B
Beta
1.23
Shares Out
195.61M
P/E (TTM)
9.0
P/S (TTM)
2.32
P/FCF (TTM)
33.64
Rev YoY
+60.9%
EPS YoY
+9.7%
Gross Margin
+32.7%
Op Margin
+26.7%
Net Debt
-$522.11M
Current Ratio
2.42
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data